The market analyst Salvador Di Stéfano, explained in dialogue with this medium that the recent rise in blue is largely explained by “the great liquidity due to Christmas sales, because there is no merchandise to replace and because entrepreneurs seek to protect themselves from future price increases”, increasing demand of the US currency.
It should be noted that in the last hours the Government confirmed that in 2022 there will be an increase of around 20% in gas and electricity rates, although if a segmentation plan is implemented there may be households in high-income neighborhoods that will stop receiving subsidies and start paying 100% of the value of the energy.
“It was sung that rates would rise. Soon rates will rise and the dollar and then the agreement with the IMF will come. The market anticipated all this, “said Di Stéfano.
Meanwhile, other experts point out that the upward trend of the informal is logical, taking into account that annual inflation will be around 50%, against a rise of just 25% of the blue dollar in the accumulated of 2021.
At the same time, the performance of the last few days was also affected by a greater circulation of pesos as a result of the payment of Christmas bonuses, and year-end bonuses, which also had its counterpart in the reduction of financial dollars.
According to sources consulted by Ámbito, the expected value of blue in 2022 depends on several factors, mainly the outcome of the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Walter Morales, president of Wise, foresees a price between $ 245 and $ 255 by December of next year, in case there is an agreement with the multilateral credit organization. The economist also warns that the agreement would lead to an adjustment in the wholesale dollar, which is regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), which “would allow a compression of the gap with respect to the blue.”
For his part, Cohen’s Head of Strategy, Juan Jose VasquezHe remarked that “the government plan and financing for 2022 should be evaluated.” “If there are no corrections in the Macro, and taking into account that the expected inflation for next year is 52% according to the REM, we must think of a blue of $ 300 by the end of 2022 as a probable scenario,” he explained.